The track of the storm developing Monday morning will determine just how big a Winter Storm this will be for the Upper Cumberland.
News Talk 94.1 Meteorologist Rob Carolan said the storm is developing this morning over Louisiana creating snow as far south as Houston. Current models bring the center of the low just west of the Upper Cumberland over Nashville.
“If it crosses off to our east, we are in trouble because that means we would be on the cold side of the system and hang on to precipitation that would be in frozen form,” Carolan said. “But the models are suggesting the core, the low goes just to our west around the Nashville area, which gets us on the warm side and allows our temperatures to get warm enough that we eventually see a changeover.”
Based on the current model, Carolan said temperatures will try to get above freezing Monday afternoon, but it may not happen until 4pm or 5pm.
A change in track could cause more potential for icing problems, Carolan said.
“Right now it looks like the major icing, just like last week, is north and west of us, up across parts of Kentucky, extreme northwestern Tennessee and into the Missouri bootheel,” Carolan said. “But again, if the storm tracks further to the east, then we’re worried about the fact that the cold air gets drawn into the circulation and that means more in the way of freezing precipitation. So we’re certainly going to be keeping a very close track on where this storm goes.”
The Upper Cumberland sits in the warm sector of the storm. At 5am, Memphis reported snow and 10 degrees. Dallas reports snow and 5 degrees.